Is it really "a great time to buy"?

According to every realtor out there it is. But what's the deal, is it a good time to buy?

My short answer is....NO, here's 5 reasons why

1. Prices are still falling. Unless you can find a deal where you are picking up the property for significantly less than the comps you will probably find yourself underwater. That's not a good place to be. It limits your options if something comes up and you need to sell.

2. There's no rush. Even if prices were to stop falling there is nothing to indicate that they will start to rise again. The economy sucks, employment sucks and there is a glut of homes in distress. So there is no reason to rush into the market. You are not "going to be priced out" anymore.

3. In most better areas it's still cheaper to rent. Granted this may no longer be the case in Perris or San Jacinto but in Corona or nearby areas it's still cheaper to rent.

4. The foreclosure wave is still coming. Unless Obama and crew can pull some miracle from their hats, the ALT-A wave is due to hit over the next year and a half. Then there is the prime wave, also still to come.

5. Low interest rates seem like a great thing but they can also trap you. If the rates suddenly rise back to the normal 8% range, it will put tremendous pressure on prices. A person that could afford a $250k at 6% can only afford a $180k home at 8%.

So, if it's a crappy time to buy why are sales up? First sales are up because last year they were practically non-existent. It would be nearly impossible not to be up. If you look at the majority of what's selling though you will find it's low end stuff. Much of it is being sold to investors for use as rentals. There are even still flippers around, believe it or not.

There are still reasons to buy though. If you can get a deal that limits your downside risk then it might be worthwhile. Lets face it, renting sucks. It may be worth a 10% equity loss just not having to deal with a landlord. And if you stay in the house long enough you will eventually surface from being underwater. If you can easily afford the payments you tend not to dwell on what the house is worth. That only becomes a factor if you want to refi or get a home equity loan. Buying now will definitely limit your options in that respect. You're not going to be able to "pull out" $40k to put a pool in a few years from now.

Currently the median is falling at about 5% per month. Don't kid yourself though, that does not mean prices are falling at 5% per month. Prices are falling at probably 1/2 that. The rest of that decline is due to the shift in sales to the low end of the market. There is practically nothing over $500k selling these days in the IE and there's not much over $350 selling. Most of the sales these days are between $100k and $300k.

In the end, whether to buy or not is a personal decision we all must make on our own. We should gather as much info as we can and decide whats best for our families. As with most financial decisions there is a certain amout of risk in buying a home. But sometimes you have to roll the dice.